The oil roots of Cuba’s new foreign policy
The agreement between the US and Cuba to resume diplomatic relations looks like a victory for the communist island. But that conclusion leaves out a crucial variable: the collapse in the price of oil, which leaves Cuba economically vulnerable and increases the likelihood of political change.
More on the geopolitics of falling oil prices.
The liberal fallacy of the Cuba deal
Gordon Adams cautions us not to be too optimistic on Cuba:
Don’t get me wrong: I support the normalization of relations. But believing it can remake the regime in Havana is the worst kind of American exceptionalist fantasy.
The Cuban regime is a defeated foe
Peggy Noonan, of all people, supports normalizing relations.
Great nations are like people. We get in habits of affection and enmity. What is needed is a practice of detached realism. Sometimes those for whom you have affection are disappointing. Sometimes those toward whom you feel enmity are, you realize, an essentially defeated foe, and a new attitude might be constructive. The key is to keep eyes sharp for changed situations, and adapt.