After the election, a ‘Whole Foods Democrat’ returns to church
democrat
Democrats won’t fix their religion problem any time soon
LinkBernie Sanders opens a new front in the battle for the future of the Democratic Party
LinkBernie Sanders opens a new front in the battle for the future of the Democratic Party
President Obama’s biggest problem in the Senate is obviously its new Republican majority, but opposition from the left wing of the Democratic caucus appears to be growing too. Most prominently, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has clashed with the White House on a key Treasury Department position and the CRomnibus spending package. But new budget committee ranking member Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is poised to break dramatically from traditional Democratic views on budgeting, from Obama to Clinton to Walter Mondale and beyond.
Interestingly, one of Karl Rove’s predictions for 2015 was that “populist anger will grow more on the left than on the right.”
Brian Schweitzer: the Anti-Obama
LinkBrian Schweitzer: the Anti-Obama
Benjy Sarlin with a great profile into the populist governor from Montana. Of course, before he can actually make a successful run, we’ll need to learn how to spell his name.
The left-leaning issues Schweitzer is most passionate about– single-payer health care, civil liberties, pulling troops out of Afghanistan – are areas where Obama has run into trouble with progressive activists. But he skews right on issues like expanding domestic oil and coal production and protecting gun rights, where Obama has held relatively strong with his base.
(via Ezra Klein)
Schweitzer begins the populist progressive campaign
LinkSchweitzer begins the populist progressive campaign
“The question that we have is, will it be the Hillary that leads the progressives?” he said. “Or is it the Hillary that says, ‘I’m already going to win the Democratic nomination, and so I can shift hard right on Day 1.’ We can’t afford any more hard right. We had eight years of George Bush. Now we’ve had five years of Obama, [who], I would argue, in many cases has been a corporatist.”
No doubt that sounds sweet to grassroots progressives who view Hillary with suspicion and have been disappointed by what they perceive as Obama’s move to the center. But it’s even harsher since it comes from the man who gave a rousing address at the 2008 Democratic National Convention that placed him in the national spotlight. Clearly Schweitzer is trying make enough noise to position himself as the voice of the progressive populist wing of the Democratic party.
Estimating the number of Senate pickups
LinkEstimating the number of Senate pickups
Thus, a realistic forecast of the Senate is that Republicans will pick up four or five seats — just enough to guarantee them the majority whether or not Barack Obama is re-elected and Vice President Biden controls the tie-breaking vote. But the forecast has a very large margin of error. Republicans could plausibly pick up 13 seats, or lose 2.
Pelosi will NOT sit with Cantor
LinkPelosi will NOT sit with Cantor
Someone should tell the media that rejecting an invitation does not automatically mean you hate bipartisanship. Kind of like when John Boehner rejected the President’s invitation to the dinner with the Chinese dignitaries.
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday she plans to sit with Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland during the State of the Union address, not House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Virginia, who had invited her to sit with him.
Electoral math adds up to a hard-to-topple president
LinkElectoral math adds up to a hard-to-topple president
Obama could lose 95 electoral votes and still win re-election. Or, as Cillizza points out, he could lose Florida, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia (all GOP-leaning states this cycle), fail to pick up any new states, and still win.
And yet, a detailed examination of the national map heading into 2012 suggests that the president still sits in a strong position for reelection – able to lose half a dozen (or more) swing states he carried in 2008 and still win the 270 electoral votes he needs for a second term.
The story of Jeff Smith
LinkFascinating story of the “idealist” who compromised just once.
Jeff Smith was a rising political star. Then the FBI started asking questions about his past.
The 2012 Senate races
LinkSean Trende breaks down the races in order of competitiveness. On the Republican side, Brown (MA) and Ensign (NV) are vulnerable, though Brown appears to be doing better than expected and scandal-ridden senators have definitely won re-election (although David Vitter’s home state is much more conservative than Nevada), while Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s seat is fairly open (though in a presidential year, the GOP candidate could definitely ride coattails).
The Democrats have a lot more vulnerable seats. Nebraska, Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio are all vulnerable – Trende thinks that North Dakota is virtually a GOP seat at this point. West Virginia, Pennsylvania (I’m skeptical about this one), Wisconsin, Michigan, and Washington are all also vulnerable, depending (according to Trende) on the presidential elections. New Mexico is safe as long as Bingaman stays, and Connecticut, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and New Jersey are safe unless the Republicans pick up someone really good. Linda Lingle, who made brief headlines as a possible moderate VP pick for McCain, could definitely win the Senate seat; I’m less excited about Rell or Carcieri. I’m calling Menendez to be safe. Sure, Chris Christie won in 2009 and has a sky-high approval rating. But look at every other election with a vulnerable Democrat. Why didn’t the GOP win? A party implosion and/or a weak candidate always lost the election in spite of the low Democrat approval ratings (see: Zimmer and Forrester). Tom Kean, Jr. is looking at a rematch, but he lost by 9 points last time around (though he has much better poll numbers this year).
With the seriatim retirement announcements of Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, Democratic Senator Kent Conrad, and independent Senator Joe Lieberman (who caucuses with the Democrats), the 2012 campaign for Senate has officially kicked off. While the 2010 races were, until fairly late in the game, only about breaking the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority, 2012 will feature a full-on battle for control of the upper chamber.
While it is still too early to make any real predictions, we can break these seats down into categories of competitiveness. Democrats clearly start out with more vulnerabilities than Republicans, largely as because (a) Democrats have to defend 23 seats to the Republicans’ 10 and (b) of those seats, the median Democratic seat has a PVI of D+2, while the median Republican seat has a PVI of R+8.