Nate Silver runs some numbers and argues that Cain may be doing better than expected, especially because of higher polling with lower name recognition.
I would wager, though, that most of the potential Cain supporters are more hardcore Republicans who tend to be more active in politics. Thus, I’m not so sure that Cain’s support with those who name him would mirror his support with those who don’t.
What’s especially interesting about Mr. Cain’s standing is that he polls at 8 percent despite being familiar to only about one-third of Republican voters, according to supplementary Gallup data. Of those voters who are familiar with him, 24 percent have him as their first choice. That’s the best figure for any candidate in the Republican field: